Ms. Dorothea Gioe

The Saudi-led coalition’s April decision to declare a unilateral ceasefire in the long-running Yemen war allows Riyadh an opportunity to retrench in light of falling oil prices and the domestic strain of a COVID-19 outbreak that has prompted the government to close Mecca during Ramadan. Though couched in humanitarian rhetoric regarding the spread of COVID-19 in Yemen, the unilateral action was announced prior to the first officially diagnosed case in Ash- Shihr, Yemen. In addition, the ceasefire points to Riyadh’s consideration of the unique opportunity the pandemic offers to step back from the high-cost conflict without causing the conflict’s architect…(read more)

Richard C. Baffa

Amid the global COVID-19 pandemic, a key date passed largely unnoticed; 8 April is Iran’s National Nuclear Technology Day and Tehran broadcast a series of advances to its nuclear program without the normal fanfare, ostensibly due to the coronavirus. The Atomic Energy Organization of Iran (AEOI) announced it would unveil advanced domestically manufactured centrifuges that would soon come online at Iran’s Natanz enrichment facility. AEOI Chief Salehi noted that research and development continue without any restrictions, including the stockpiling of enriched uranium and heavy water storage. For his part, President Rouhani maintained Iran’s nuclear program was now more advanced than in…(read more)

Recent arrests of prominent members of the royal family accused of plotting a coup are intended to demonstrate that dissent of Mohammed Bin Salman’s (MBS) authoritarian tendencies will not be tolerated; however, the lesson is really that Saudi rulers break with tradition at their own peril. Among those arrested was King Salman’s brother Prince Ahmed Bin Abdel Aziz and formerCrown Prince Muhammed bin Nayef (MBN). The latter was ignominiously dismissed in favour of MBS as prospective successor to the throne in June 2017, a move that alienated the Sudairi Seven, seven powerful sons of Ibn Saud, since MBN is a…(read more)

Iran: Expecting a Tumultuous 2020

Richard C. Baffa 

At the beginning of a new decade, the Kingdom’s balance sheet in achieving the stated goals ofVision 2030 leaves much to be desired. This is in keeping with a historic trail of similar development plans to modernise and diversify the Kingdom since the 1970s: ultimately political considerations have trumped…(read more)

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Despite international investor scepticism, Saudi Arabia has managed to rally sufficient local and regional support to achieve Crown Prince Muhammad bin Salman’s (MBS) long touted $2 trillion valuation for Aramco, after trading on the Tadawul stock exchange. The Kingdom undertook several public steps in recent months to secure a solid valuation for the nation’s crown jewel. Until September 2019, the head of Aramco was also Energy Minister. The decision to separate the two portfolios was an attempt to...(read more)

The appointment of the Kingdom’s first royal, Prince Abdul Aziz bin Salman as Energy Ministersignals a break with the tradition of protecting this key post from palace intrigue. Half-brother to Crown Prince Muhammad bin Salman (MBS), and with a personal reputation as a technocrat and consensus builder, Prince Abdul Aziz has critical experience in negotiating deals within the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC). As part of the quest to acquire as high a valuation for Aramco as possible, Prince Abdul Aziz has worked to secure deeper supply cuts within OPEC, particularly from…(read more)

Saudi Arabia: Implications of Aramco IPO

Dr. Renad Mansour, Research Fellow at Chatham House

October 2019 represented one of the largest grassroots protest mobilizations in Iraq since 2003, protests which continue into November and will likely linger in diminishing numbers. Iraqi youth (two-thirds of Iraq is under the age of 30 and many are without job prospects) are disillusioned by rampant, systemic corruption that privileges Shia, Kurdish, and Sunni elites. In response to protests, which began in Baghdad’s Tahrir Square on 01 October but have spread throughout the south, Iraqi forces and allied Iran-backed militia have used increasing force against largely unarmed protesters, resulting in the deaths of over 300… (read more)

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Egypt: Protests and Political Upheaval 

Dr. Dina Rezk, University of Reading

Russia will soon abandon this month’s historic OPEC+ deal to cut oil production by 9.7 million barrels per day (mb/d), a feeble attempt to stabilise prices after the Russian–Saudi supply war and COVID-19 lockdowns sent prices and demand plummeting almost simultaneously. The agreed cuts are far lower than needed to stabilise prices. And the Russian state’s budget dependence on energy and dubious record on past compliance with much smaller cuts point to ‘concessions’ of slashing a quarter of daily output not being what they seem, with condensates excluded from calculations. Not that Russia can easily cut production anyway, but the real test for the deal comes next month, when COVID-19 lockdowns should start to…(read more)

Dr. Victor Madeira

Nearly 50 per cent of Russia’s state revenue is from fossil-fuel exports, but a European Union (EU) carbon border tax (CBT) proposal could stop a third of those by 2030. A CBT would aim to end competitive advantages enjoyed by exporters offering cheaper goods that do not include pollution-reduction costs. Since Russian finished exports have the world’s second-highest in- built CO2 emissions, any CBT stands to cause significant economic shocks in Russia.

Carbon, in every sense, is a growing security threat to Russia, with renewables now economically viable, de-carbonisation costs dropping, divestment increasing, and America set to overtake Russia and Saudi Arabia in oil exports by 2025. Producers with decaying extraction infrastructure, like Russia, face further problems because ‘re-gas’ tankers are allowing more countries to benefit from global liquid natural gas (LNG) markets. As a result,..(read more)

Dr. Tracey German, King’s College London

In early February, the U.S. unveiled its five-year strategy for Central Asia, a brief document that is a continuation of its previous strategies focusing on political stability, counter-terrorism and energy security. Most key policy objectives—promoting reform of the rule of law and respect for human rights, reducing terrorist threats, and supporting the stabilisation of Afghanistan—have previously appeared over the past two decades. The declared aspiration to boost connectivity between Central Asia and Afghanistan along the Lapis Lazuli corridor reflects the New Silk Road initiative unveiled by Hillary Clinton in 2011. The biggest change is…(read more)

Dr. Tracey German, King’s College London, and Dr. Victor Madeira

Dr. Tracey German, King’s College London

Despite talk of deepening strategic ties, Russia and Iran remain mistrustful partners of convenience often competing for influence—including in Syria, where together they prop up the al-Assad regime. In Russia’s global strategy of “divide-and-rule”, Iran and its proxies are valuable pawns against America and its regional allies. And an isolated Iran increasingly needs…(read more)

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As 2019 draws to a close, anti-government protests in Georgia continue apace. In mid- December a protest group, Shame, released a foul-smelling chemical in parliament as legislators were deliberating a series of lifetime appointments to the Supreme Court. Claiming responsibility for the attack in a Facebook post, the group used the hashtag #Systemstinks. A number of Georgia’s international partners have expressed concern about the political turmoil, warning that the country is at risk of…(read more)

‘Apple Law’ Bans Won’t Help Russian Consumers, Businesses

Dr. Victor Madeira

Vladimir Putin has signed a bill banning the sale of electronic devices unless they have pre- installed (so far unspecified) Russian software. Expected to become law on 01 July 2020, this would benefit consumers and help local companies compete with foreign ones, say officials. But Apple—which does not pre-install third-party software—has joined Russian voices in criticising the step. It is the latest toward a Kremlin aim of ‘sovereign internet’, increasingly free of western technology…(read more)

Dr. Victor Madeira

The Russian Federation’s new ‘sovereign internet’ law came into effect on 01 November. Officials describe it simply as measures to centralise control of and isolate the Russian Internet (RuNet) in unspecified national emergencies, e.g. external cyber-attack, whilst allowing websites and services hosted in Russia to keep working. But the so-called ‘kill-switch law’ currently faces technical and financial obstacles to full implementation. This means the new legislation, at least in the near term, is more about… (read more)

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Russia ‘Embarrassed’ Twice in a Week by CN Media  

Dr. Victor Madeira

In early November, Chinese media unusually embarrassed Russia – twice in a week. First, SINA reported that in July 2018, Syria seized an unexploded, cutting-edge Israeli-U.S. missile interceptor from the ‘David’s Sling’ system and gave it to Russia. Days later, Eastday.com quoted a leading Chinese strategist who claimed NATO could occupy Russia’s Baltic exclave of Kaliningrad (formerly Königsberg) in just two days, but Moscow would then widen the conflict by striking several European capitals. Russian media carried both reports, raising questions about their source, timing, and aims, though...(read more)

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